It’s been 4.5 years since Grin released its mainnet. In this time, various speculations and allegations emerged. Currently, one group thinks Grin is dead, while the other group claims that everything continues as normal. I am writing this article for the two group to analyze their thoughts and correct some misinformation. I’m sure Ignotus would want it to be too.
Constant Block Reward Is Not Linked To Justice
As is known, Grin’s block reward is set at 60 Grin per minute from the first day to the last day. Therefore, people argue that this non-decreasing structure can be fair but mathematically and economically this is not true. You can find fairness on monetary inflation, not constant emissions. If inflation is not constant, the distribution of supply cannot be said to be fair, because the person who buys Grin first and the person who buys it later will get a share of different monetary inflation.
Above is Grin’s annual Inflation. There is hyperinflation in the first 2 years. Therefore, the first 2 years are the busiest years when a price drop can be experienced. Price pressure is likely to continue until subsequent inflation drops below at least 20%. Therefore, Grin is in a structure that has downward pressure for the first 5 years, and then the pressure is slowly lifted. Therefore, it is more advantageous to take Grin after 5 years than the one who takes it on the first day. Although this structure is strongly defended and claimed that whales cannot be enriched, it makes the people who worked on the project in the first place, the investors and those who protect the net, the bait of the whales for the future. Sad but true.
Grin Also Might Be a Hype Coin
It is alleged that Grin was not intended as hype money, due to its constant block reward and long-term inflation.
However, mathematically it is completely wrong. Grin may not just be hype money for the first 10 years, but when inflation drops below 10%, there’s nothing to prevent it from being hype money. In the past, while under 10% inflation, some cryptocurrencies with unlimited supply experienced spikes in hype. For example 2017 Ethereum.
Grin Will Die Too
Everything has a beginning and an end. There are those who think that because of the unlimited and undiminished supply of Grin, it will become immortal. However, this is not mathematically correct. In terms of the security of cryptocurrencies with POW, some studies show that there should be a minimum monetary inflation of 2%. Grin will reach 2% monetary inflation in 2069, and will be at risk of death from then on. So, you can roughly calculate Grin’s lifespan as 50 years.
Grin Is Not Equal to Time Also It Is Not Time Coin
When Ignotus Peverell did not even have the number 60 in mind, he chose it with a suggestion later, which created this misconception. Scientifically, time is not linear and does not increase. They scientifically refer to time as cyclical and zero. However, the continuous increase in Grin’s supply and the continuous decrease in its inflation do not establish a mathematical connection with time. Grin = time is completely meaningless. Just for simplicity, it can be expressed as 1 grin in 1 second but you can’t show this with mathematical equality (=)
Grin’s Price Actions Are At Least As Unstable As Bitcoin
The expectation was that Grin’s sustained and long-term inflation would lead to a more balanced price movement. However, this did not happen.
Grin did the record, dropping from $15 to $0.03, the highest drop among any reliable projects. Even if its price increases in the future, it will still prove its unbalanced structure, as there will be a serious decrease at first and then a increase.
So What Did Ignotus Tried To Do?
Ignotus tried to eliminate the design that made the early investor rich and tried to establish price stability. In order not to jeopardize Grin’s long-term network, he wanted to choose a 50-year inflation model of over 2%. Probably, thinking that all this would attract more attention, he thought that the project would fall in the first years but would stand on a solid point. At first, everyone would have thought that a fully decentralized, fair launch and privacy-promoting cryptocurrency would end up in the worst $100 million. Even worse, let’s say $50 million. However, the point reached is $5 million. So, as a writer, I can say 100% that what Ignotus expected did not happen. Those who argue the opposite means Ignotus wants Grin development decrease, developers leave the project one by one, the first investors get poorer, and delisted from all exchanges. You can also understand just from this, if Ignotus had expected such a drop, he wouldn’t have bothered to change the mining algorithm for ASIC resistantance 4 times. The value of the coins you will mine will go to $ 0.03$ anyway, why all the trouble?
Grin attracted serious attention when it came out in 2019. However, high inflation in the first years kept the price moving downwards. Interest in its waned. It was delisted from many markets, many developers and supporters left the project. The development on it came to an end and the number of core developers decreased to 1. During this period, other projects began to develop significantly. In the name of scalability, the project called Mina started to revolutionize. Kaspa started to do revolutionize on POW speed. Layer 2s created an incredibly large area for Ethereum. While all of this is improving day by day, Grin’s development, on the contrary, is declining.
It makes no sense when you think logically about the reason why all this happened. In any case, if the inflation is going to drop below 10% one day, there is no use in making the project suffer for the first 10 years and creating a negative scenario.
Thus, after the Grin experiment, it is pointless to support a constant supply distribution from start to finish, even if unlimited supply is supported in POW projects. Ignotus Peverell couldn’t have known the outcome without doing it. Truthly, no one would know this. However defending it while we have a tried and tested experiment only proves the existence of staring blind eyes. Right now probably Ignotus Peverell would have accepted all of this and offered a development example. However, the remaining Grin community is not capable of doing so.
Suggestion for Future Projects
New monetary policy should reduce the inflation pressure and protect the investor from the first moment. After, inflation reaches a certain level, it will continue to constant. The main point is to ensure stable price movement from the beginning of inflation until it reaches a constant point. In the continuation, as there will be constant inflation, more justice will be provided.